2023 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win the Top Categories

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The 95th Academy Awards are finally here, set to be handed out live on Sunday, March 12. Presented at the end of the awards season, the Oscars will put a definitive stamp on what was considered the best in film from the past year. 

Among this year's top contenders is Everything Everywhere All at Once, which has the most nominations, 11, going into the ceremony and is up for Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and several other major categories. The absurdist sci-fi dramedy is followed by the German Netflix war film, All Quiet on the Western Front, which took home seven BAFTAs, and The Banshees of Inisherin. Both movies have nine nominations each. 

Additionally, Elvis, starring Austin Butler, The Fabelmans, which earned Michelle Williams her fifth acting nomination, TárTop Gun: Maverick, the Black Panther sequel, Wakanda Forever, and James Cameron's long-awaited Avatar: The Way of Water round out the other top films vying for Oscars.

As for the acting prizes, 16 of the performers are first-time nominees, including a controversial nod for Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie). The nominations also made history when it included Asian actors in three of the categories with Everything Everywhere All at Once stars Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) all vying for their first wins.

Angela Bassett, meanwhile, became the first person from a Marvel movie to garner an individual acting nod, with her performance winning her a number of precursor awards. 

So, who will win? Here are ET's predictions for the key races and biggest categories at the 2023 Oscars, based on who's been winning with the guilds and other major awards as well as chatter among film experts. While some wins may seem locked, there's no telling exactly how the Academy will vote, making Sunday night one to watch. Until then, here's some of our best guesses in the top categories. 


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Nominees: 

All Quiet on the Western Front 
Avatar: The Way of Water 
The Banshees of Inisherin 
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
The Fabelmans 
Top Gun: Maverick 
Triangle of Sadness 
Women Talking 

Who Will Win: 

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Telling the story about a woman who is thrust from her dull reality into a bewildering multiverse and must now use her newfound powers to save the world from destruction, EEAAO has become the breakout film of the 2023 awards season. In addition to its 11 Oscar nominations, it has won seven Independent Spirit Awards, five Critics Choice Movie Awards, four SAG Awards, two Golden Globes and one BAFTA. Not only has the film captured the hearts of audiences, especially those who finally watched it when it started streaming on Showtime, but the industry can't give it enough accolades.

The only real upset could come in the form of All Quiet on the Western Front, which nearly shut out EEAAO at the BAFTAs and has some wondering if it could be a real contender at the Oscars, considering it garnered nine nominations, a tie shared with The Banshees of Inisherin, which was also an early favorite at the start of the season. 


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Nominees:

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Todd Field – Tár
Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness

Who Will Win:

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Given that the directing duo won the top prize at the DGA Awards and also won at the Spirit Awards, the category now seems to have fully tipped in their favor, besting original frontrunner -- and nostalgia pick -- Steven Spielberg, who is looking for his first Best Director win since taking home the award in 1999 for Saving Private Ryan. But considering that he's also up for Best Original Screenplay, it's possible the Academy will honor Spielberg there, giving him his first writing Oscar instead. 


The Whale

The Nominees: 

Austin Butler – Elvis as Elvis Presley
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin as Pádraic Súilleabháin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale as Charlie
Paul Mescal – Aftersun as Calum Paterson
Bill Nighy – Living as Mr. Rodney Williams

Who Will Win:

Brendan Fraser

While Austin Butler has bested his competitors at nearly every major awards show, the SAG Awards gave the Best Actor prize to Brendan Fraser, in one of the final major honors before the Oscars. And given the comeback story surrounding the 54-year-old, who is not only a first-time nominee but also has had very little opportunity to give an impassioned speech, the Academy might lean in his favor with a win to complete the narrative.  


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Nominees: 

Cate Blanchett – Tár as Lydia Tár
Ana de Armas – Blonde as Norma Jeane Mortensen / Marilyn Monroe
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie as Leslie Rowlands
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans as Mitzi Schildkraut-Fabelman
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Evelyn Quan Wang

Who Will Win:

Michelle Yeoh

The Best Actress category is another one that was thought to have been decided from the start of the awards season, with Cate Blanchett picking up win after win for one of the best performances of her career -- and of the year. However, Michelle Yeoh has also delivered her own career best and has no previous Oscar nominations, giving the Academy an opportunity to award someone new and as equally as deserving (especially considering the snubs that have come before this year). 


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Nominees: 

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin as Colm Doherty
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway as James Aucoin
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans as Boris Schildkraut
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin as Dominic Kearney
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Waymond Wang

Who Will Win:

Ke Huy Quan

After giving a tearful speech at the Golden Globes, and then managing to top that at every awards show that followed, Ke Huy Quan has solidified his win -- as well as his own comeback narrative of being a former child star, who broke out in the '80s, but then struggled to match that success in the three decades that followed. Not only that, but the upcoming Loki season 2 star has collected the most trophies this year -- and it would be a shame not to get one final victory lap here. 


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Nominees: 

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever as Queen Ramonda
Hong Chau – The Whale as Liz
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin as Siobhán Súilleabháin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Deirdre Beaubeirdre
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once as Joy Wang / Jobu Tupaki

Who Will Win:

Jamie Lee Curtis

While Angela Bassett made history with her long overdue second acting nomination, Jamie Lee Curtis has emerged as an upset in the category following the SAG Awards. Given the momentum surrounding EEAAO, it wouldn't be surprising if the Academy wanted to also recognize Curtis, who garnered her first nomination ever after 45 years onscreen, including a welcome return to the Halloween franchise that preceded her unexpected and acclaimed performance here.

The 2023 Academy Awards hosted by Jimmy Kimmel will air live on Sunday, March 12 starting at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on ABC. In the meantime, stay tuned to ETonline.com for complete Oscars coverage.


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